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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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