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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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