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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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