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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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