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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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