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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 June 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 600 MMST IN 2021, 11% MORE THAN IN 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 600 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 61 MMst (11%) more than in 2020.
The increase is dri ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
The In-Person Maritime Event
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
culminates successfully in Dubai
Press Release: ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquir ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
KOMIPO INVITED 5600 NAR COAL OFFERS FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY; 520,000 MT PER YEAR
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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