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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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