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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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