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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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