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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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