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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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