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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 July 21
END TO COAL POWER BROUGHT FORWARD TO OCTOBER 2024
Press Release: The deadline to phase out coal from Great Britain's energy system has been brought forward by a whole year, highlighting the UK& ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY BUILD 600 NEW UNPROFITABLE COAL PLANTS? - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Governments in Asia are planning 600 new coal plants that could lose investors $150 billion and derail efforts to limit temperature rise in line wi ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
FIVE ASIAN COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF NEW COAL POWER INVESTMENT - THE GUARDIAN
Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a rep ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR RECORDED AN IMPROVED REVENUE IN Q1 2021; REVENUE INCREASED BY 49% QOQ TO US$160 MILLION ON THE BACK OF COAL PRICE RECOVERY
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (“DOID”) released its consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owned ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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