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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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