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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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