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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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