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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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