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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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