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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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