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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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