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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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