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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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