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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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