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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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