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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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