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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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