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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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