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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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