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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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