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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
 In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three cases for coal markets in India and Greater Southeast Asia (GSEA), which highlight the role that varying levels of coal production and trade play in the regions’ carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and electricity generation mix.
In our Low Coal Demand case, we assume policy or technology changes that result in 33% less coal demand between 2030 and 2050 in the industrial and power sectors of India and GSEA. As a result of less coal demand in the regions, regional coal production grows less, and coal imports decrease. In the Low Coal Supply case, we assume a 50% increase in the cost of coal production, compared with the IEO2021 Reference case, and less available coal supply in India and GSEA. We assume the opposite (a 50% decrease in the cost of coal production) in the High Coal Supply case.
The level of CO2 emissions from coal are directly proportional to coal consumption in these cases. In the IEO2021 Reference case, which assumes no changes to current policies or technologies, coal consumption in India and GSEA reaches a combined 3.2 billion short tons in 2050, and resulting CO2 emissions reach 5.6 billion metric tons.
We project India and GSEA coal demand and emissions in 2050 to differ from the Reference case:
Low Coal Demand case, 33% less consumption
Low Coal Demand case, 32% less emissions
Low Coal Supply case, 15% less consumption
Low Coal Supply case, 13% less emissions
High Coal Supply case, 15% more consumption
High Coal Supply case, 13% more emissions
In all cases, we expect coal consumption and coal-related emissions in India and GSEA to grow from 2020 levels.
Although the electricity generated in India and GSEA in 2050 is fairly similar to what we forecast in the IEO2021 Reference case and in our three side cases, the share of generation by generation type varies.
In India, the Low Coal Demand and Low Coal Supply cases both show that renewable sources generate more electricity than in the Reference case; renewables account for 75% of the generation mix by 2050, compared with 67% in the Reference case. In the High Coal Supply case, coal’s share of India’s electricity mix increases to 28% in 2050, compared with 21% in the Reference case, while renewables account for a 60% share.
In GSEA, renewable sources do not displace coal, natural gas, and hydroelectric generation as much as in India. In the Reference case, renewables make up 23% of the generation mix in GSEA in 2050. That share increases to 39% in the Low Coal Demand case and drops to 16% in the High Coal Supply case. Coal has a 45% share of generation in the Reference case and a 58% share in 2050 in the High Coal Supply case.
Source: EIA
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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