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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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