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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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