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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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