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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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