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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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