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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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