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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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