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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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