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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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