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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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