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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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