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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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