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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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