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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
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