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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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