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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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