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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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