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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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