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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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