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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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