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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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