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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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