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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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