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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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