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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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