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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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