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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
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Showing 361 to 365 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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