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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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