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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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Showing 366 to 370 news of total 6871 |
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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