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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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