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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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