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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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